In 22 May 2023, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Papua New Guinea (PNG) Defence Minister Win Bakri Daki signed a defence and maritime cooperation agreement in Port Moresby. Blinken stepped in after US President Joe Biden’s last-minute cancellation. Had he attended, it would reportedly have been the first time a US president had visited a Pacific Island country other than US territories such as Hawaii and Guam. This is on the back of having pledged an additional US$800 million at a US-Pacific Summit in late 2022 to help tackle climate change, overfishing, and maritime security.

The increased presence of the United States in the Pacific is a consequence of its escalating geopolitical competition with China. The recent deal with PNG follows the security agreement China signed with Solomon Islands, with China then attempting to replicate it with other Pacific states, in early 2022. But it also reflects the extent to which Washington has lost faith in Canberra, to whom it has long delegated the management of regional affairs. Australia may be a key member of AUKUS, but its status as the most influential state in the Pacific, which for much of the post-World War II period has been on the periphery of global affairs, has been lost, likely for the foreseeable future, despite its allocation of more than a billion dollars annually in foreign aid.

The explanations for this perceived failure have varied, ranging from criticism of the preponderance of dovish views of China’s rise and a neglected defence and foreign aid budget, through to Australia’s reluctance to accept the science of climate change and its ineffectual public diplomacy. This debate was central to the 2022 federal election campaign, the first in recent memory where the Pacific featured prominently. It likely won’t be the last.