Luck has always been a potent force in politics, good and bad, but for Scott Morrison, Australia’s thirtieth prime minister, it almost single-handedly drove his unheralded ascent.

Luck, specifically his, explains how voters acquired a new prime minister in 2018 without an election – one whose personal ambition overshadowed any record of achievement or demonstrable expertise. The joke in Canberra was that Morrison had risen without trace. Even Liberals chortled about it.

Morrison had his backstory, but few knew much about it. Had his colleagues done their due diligence, they would have found little in the way of policy depth or management prowess to suggest he was leadership material. Quite the reverse. His previous advances appeared to have resulted from premature departures from previous roles, notably as head of the New Zealand Tourism Board (following which there had been audit criticism) and then of Tourism Australia, where he was sacked by the Howard government.